Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-14

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-04) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 100 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-04 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-04. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-04. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-04. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-04. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-04)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-04) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Algeria 96 (45 – 138) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -28 (14 – Inf)
Argentina 121 (69 – 180) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 59 (8.5 – Inf)
Australia 86 (32 – 133) Decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 0.9) -11 (24 – Inf)
Austria 253 (170 – 331) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -31 (29 – Inf)
Azerbaijan 85 (38 – 128) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 34 (6.6 – Inf)
Bahrain 84 (45 – 127) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.9) 8.8 (4.2 – Inf)
Bangladesh 106 (56 – 145) Increasing 1.7 (1.2 – 2.2) 6.2 (3.7 – 19)
Belarus 363 (285 – 433) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.7) 8.4 (5.8 – 15)
Belgium 1539 (1392 – 1686) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 52 (24 – Inf)
Brazil 1546 (1410 – 1720) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 33 (18 – 320)
Cameroon 52 (15 – 89) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.3) -9.8 (14 – Inf)
Canada 1252 (1100 – 1375) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -73 (87 – Inf)
Chile 415 (336 – 496) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 47 (15 – Inf)
China 99 (54 – 142) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 17 (6.2 – Inf)
Colombia 212 (140 – 302) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 17 (7.1 – Inf)
Czechia 184 (114 – 251) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -24 (25 – Inf)
Denmark 204 (138 – 267) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -13 (Inf – Inf)
Dominican Republic 213 (148 – 266) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 14 (7.2 – 240)
Ecuador 712 (580 – 804) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.7) 7.8 (5.8 – 12)
Egypt 143 (87 – 193) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 38 (8.9 – Inf)
Estonia 59 (14 – 107) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.7) -100 (5.7 – Inf)
Finland 143 (78 – 206) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) -58 (13 – Inf)
France 3185 (2978 – 3400) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -47 (Inf – Inf)
Germany 3538 (3320 – 3769) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 0.9) -22 (Inf – Inf)
Ghana 71 (39 – 105) Increasing 1.7 (1.1 – 2.2) 6.1 (3.4 – 30)
Greece 76 (33 – 119) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 57 (6.7 – Inf)
Hungary 132 (75 – 197) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.7) 10 (5 – Inf)
India 852 (738 – 952) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 17 (11 – 37)
Indonesia 325 (250 – 383) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 13 (7.8 – 47)
Iran 1796 (1622 – 1950) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -18 (Inf – Inf)
Iraq 62 (25 – 100) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -50 (8.4 – Inf)
Ireland 809 (707 – 912) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 11 (8.1 – 18)
Israel 405 (324 – 475) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -21 (420 – Inf)
Italy 4234 (3997 – 4482) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 200 (47 – Inf)
Japan 773 (666 – 876) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.7) 7.7 (5.9 – 11)
Kazakhstan 61 (25 – 93) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) -130 (7.9 – Inf)
Kuwait 115 (61 – 162) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) 22 (6.6 – Inf)
Lithuania 61 (19 – 105) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 25 (4.7 – Inf)
Luxembourg 91 (31 – 144) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.3) -53 (8.7 – Inf)
Malaysia 154 (103 – 206) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -76 (15 – Inf)
Mexico 388 (311 – 463) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 18 (9.5 – 120)
Moldova 135 (80 – 192) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 38 (8.4 – Inf)
Morocco 107 (58 – 147) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 94 (9 – Inf)
Netherlands 1248 (1113 – 1384) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 31 (17 – 180)
Norway 110 (59 – 153) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -11 (160 – Inf)
Pakistan 269 (204 – 330) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -21 (94 – Inf)
Panama 229 (164 – 290) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 22 (9 – Inf)
Peru 818 (710 – 921) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 11 (7.9 – 21)
Philippines 203 (144 – 257) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -73 (18 – Inf)
Poland 366 (294 – 434) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) -360 (23 – Inf)
Portugal 832 (713 – 939) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 39 (17 – Inf)
Puerto Rico 80 (42 – 117) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 14 (5.3 – Inf)
Qatar 199 (139 – 246) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -67 (20 – Inf)
Romania 383 (311 – 456) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 40 (14 – Inf)
Russia 1784 (1636 – 1951) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.5) 9.9 (8 – 13)
Saudi Arabia 378 (295 – 443) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 11 (6.9 – 22)
Serbia 249 (190 – 313) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 200 (16 – Inf)
Singapore 230 (163 – 285) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.7) 8.6 (5.4 – 21)
Slovakia 39 (3 – 73) Unsure 1.1 (0.4 – 1.6) -45 (4.9 – Inf)
South Africa 90 (47 – 125) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 19 (6.4 – Inf)
South Korea 44 (9 – 72) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.1) -13 (11 – Inf)
Spain 4797 (4499 – 5027) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -27 (Inf – Inf)
Sweden 501 (413 – 581) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 130 (21 – Inf)
Switzerland 601 (504 – 689) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -23 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand 55 (16 – 92) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1) -10 (18 – Inf)
Turkey 4728 (4461 – 4980) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 19 (15 – 25)
Ukraine 283 (209 – 338) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.6) 10 (6.3 – 25)
United Arab Emirates 370 (305 – 444) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 27 (12 – Inf)
United Kingdom 6076 (5829 – 6408) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 22 (17 – 30)
United States of America 30907 (30193 – 31525) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 940 (150 – Inf)
Uzbekistan 98 (53 – 146) Likely increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.8) 13 (5.3 – Inf)